🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.