Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The mean figure of per-day murders monthly in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent official data. But, security analysts have cautioned that homicide data could fail to signal better national stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September of last year. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen over these months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the lowest number of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Fierce cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. However, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her national security plan for an apparently sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main components of the President's safety plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that using homicide data to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is notably true considering the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it might mask days when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes high peaks of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains plagued by severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a story of improvement. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s very questionable,” the analyst remarked.